MARKET INSIGHTS
Client 1
Sector: Retail (150+ stores)
Challenge: Would extending store hours increase sales of a particular high-margin product? And if the answer is yes, should the strategy be focussed on larger or smaller
stores?
Methodology: Panel data models based on historical sales patterns
as well as location-specific factors such as footfall, post-code level incomes and spending.
Results:
(1) Extending store opening hours would lead to an increase in product sales – particularly at weekends.
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(2) The marginal impact of an extra hour was nearly two times higher in smaller stores than in larger ones.
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By factoring in heterogeneity across stores—something traditional analyses often miss we delivered a targeted strategy that grew ROI.​​​​
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Client 2
​Sector: Musical Event Planning​
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​​Challenge: Recent years have seen an increasing number of events have been cancelled by promoters at the last minute. How much was the economic cycle to blame?
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Methodology: Dynamic Threshold & Quantile regression models of cancellation rates based on macroeconomic data, demographics and taste shifters.
Results:
(1) Rising inflation and interest rates rises have put downward pressure on profitability, especially for those events towards the bottom of the revenue distribution.
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(2) The sector also faces structural headwinds including taste shifts away from by a critical age group.
By allowing for cyclical and structural impacts to vary by event size we were able to accurately predict the likelihood of weak profitability over the planning horizon.
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